Global Assets Under Management (AuM) for the Asset Management Industry Ends 2023 at USD 128 trn. Growth Outlook for 2024 is Below Trend.

2023 Estimates

At the start of July 2023, Lamb Quatitative Research (LQR) predicted global AuM for asset managers would rise 8% from USD 115 trillion at end of 2022 to USD 124 trillion at end of 2023. WIth 2023 past, we update the estimate for 2023 to USD 128 trillion, an increase of 11%.

We'll only know for certain in April, when asset managers have completed their year-end reporting for 2023.

The updated estimate for 2023 remains below the highest year-end reading of USD 134 trillion in 2021.

2024 Forecasts

We forecast global AuM to reach USD 131 trillion at the end of 2024 - still short of the USD 134 trillion peak in 2021.

This is based is on our foreast for the S&P 500 equity index to rise 5% in 2024 - positive but below trend (8%) - and global AuM's positive correlation with this index. The 95% prediction interval range is -3% to +13% of the AuM figure.

The distribution from manager to manager will be wider.

Global Net Inflows

Global net inflows will have been 1.5% of global AuM in 2023 - below trend of 2.5%, but above the 0.8% in 2022. Significantly negatively correlated with U.S. interest rates, we expect 2024 inflows to be around 2.0% of global AuM in 2024.

Happy New Year.

Further details in "Asset Management Industry: Financials 2023", "Asset Management Industry: Fundamental Analysis 2023", and "LQR S&P 500 Forecasts"

Source: Lamb Quantitative Research (www.lambqr.com)